"Where inflation is headed is perhaps the biggest question in global economics at the moment. Will the recent surge prove transitory as central bankers hope or linger for longer? "So who out there are the best forecasters? According to a new study by Joseph Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev it depends on the timeframe…" Read the full article here: Full Article

"How good is the bond market at predicting inflation? Joseph Gagnon, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, suggests that yields are far more closely correlated with past inflation than future inflation, though much of the data used predates the existence of inflation-protected bonds…" Read the full article here: Full Article

"Joe Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, says that even though tariffs can drive up some prices, they have little to do with widespread inflation. "'The economy basically wants to keep the same trade balance, which is driven by other forces,' he said. 'Tariffs tend to make the dollar go up, and what that does is lower other import prices…'" Read the full article here: Full Article

"[W]ith forecasters looking for the economy to grow an additional 3.3% next year, by the end of 2022 GDP could be 2.7% above the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of its 'potential,' or the level it can sustain without running too hot. The last time GDP got that far above potential was 1973, when the U.S. was experiencing a serious inflation problem that wouldn’t be snuffed until the early 1980s. "The seeds for the 1970s experience were sown in the 1960s, when [...]

"The federal reserve and the Biden administration have been trying to prepare the country for temporary, modest inflation this year, around 2.3% or so, as the economy recovers. But some are worried we might see more significant and durable rises in prices. "Joseph Gagnon, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is somewhere in between. 'Marketplace Morning Report' host Sabri Ben-Achour spoke with Gagnon, also a former economist at the Federal Reserve, about the prevailing opinions about how economic [...]

"'The government is sending out checks to everybody,' said Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 'Households and state and local governments are buying all kinds of supplies for education and health care — we haven't had a government budget deficit this big since World War II…'" Read the full article here: Full Article