Jay Shambaugh writes for Brookings: “Don’t Let Flashy 3rd Quarter GDP Growth Fool You, The Economy Is Still in A Big Hole”

"When Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data for the third quarter of 2020 is released on October 29, it will almost certainly break records. Many analysts project growth over 30 percent at an annual rate – roughly twice as high as any quarterly growth rate since World War II. "Yet despite this phenomenal-sounding growth, the economy will still be in a considerable hole, is actually slowing down, and presents a strong case for concern. Some basic math and data can help [...]

2020-11-18T15:54:20-05:00October 26, 2020|Economy & Trade|

Jay Shambaugh quoted in Marketplace article, “Without More Relief Spending, the Recovery’s Likely to Stall”

"One of the biggest infusions was $600-a-week in extra unemployment payments to more than 20 million jobless Americans. That expired in mid-summer, and the amount of cash going out to laid-off workers cratered, according to Jay Shambaugh, an economist at George Washington University. "'It fell from $110 [billion] in July to $34 billion in September,' he said. 'So there’s this massive drop-off to the economy and also to the most vulnerable households...'" Read the full article here: Full Article

2020-10-20T16:11:54-04:00October 7, 2020|Economy & Trade|

Jay Shambaugh quoted in the Financial Times ​article, “‘Difficult Decisions’ Ahead as UK Public Debt Tops Record £2tn”

"A fresh surge in coronavirus cases is putting pressure on governments on both sides of the Atlantic to maintain emergency labour market support mechanisms at a time when politicians had hoped their economies would be gradually returning to normal. 'This is slowly morphing into long-term unemployment problem,' said Jay Shambaugh, a fellow at the Brookings Institution..." Read the full article here: Full Article

2020-09-01T21:40:55-04:00August 21, 2020|Economy & Trade|

Jay Shambaugh quoted in Financial Times article, “Governments puzzle over how to unwind job protection schemes”

“US temporary job losses are declining, pushing the unemployment rate down from 14.7 per cent in April to 10.2 per cent in July. "But on both sides of the Atlantic, the improvements are showing worrying signs of petering out. “'This is slowly morphing into a long-term unemployment problem,' said Jay Shambaugh, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and former White House adviser, noting that 5 per cent of the US workforce had now been unemployed for more than 15 weeks..." Read [...]

2020-09-01T21:11:53-04:00August 20, 2020|Economy & Trade|

Jay Shambaugh quoted in Slate article, “The Extremely Boring Idea That Could Save the Economy”

"We could have avoided this nationwide facepalm if unemployment benefits were designed to rise and fall with the health of the economy, in the first place. 'Automatic stabilizers prevent you from cutting off things too soon,' George Washington University professor Jay Shambaugh, who co-edited Recession Ready, and served on Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, told me. 'The idea that the unemployment rate is higher than at any point in the Great Recession and we’re about to pull support from the economy—that’s [...]

2020-08-07T08:24:12-04:00July 31, 2020|Economy & Trade|

Jay Shambaugh writes with Wendy Edelberg for Brookings’ The Hamilton Project: “How the Pandemic Is Changing the Economy”

"The COVID-19 public health crisis, the economic shock triggered by the pandemic, and public policy, business, and individual responses to the pandemic together have provoked the sharpest and fastest economic downturn in U.S. history. Both the pandemic and the fiscal policy response have ebbed and flowed, and the economy remains fragile. Wendy Edelberg and Jay Shambaugh discuss how the current crisis fits into historic context and what will be the long-lasting economic consequences. In particular, policymakers will need to address increasing [...]

2020-08-01T12:07:11-04:00July 17, 2020|Economy & Trade|
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